Harrisonburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

504
FXUS61 KLWX 051416
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1016 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A broken line of heavy showers stretches from northern MD to
Staunton, VA as of 10AM. Impressive southerly wind gusts around
30 knots have been observed ahead of the convective line.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front will move through today, bringing
rainfall and perhaps a chance for a thunderstorm. Much cooler
air moves in behind the front for Monday.

 2) Cooler temps expected this week along with surface
high pres building over the Mid-Atlantic by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front will move through today, bringing
rainfall and perhaps a chance for a thunderstorm. Much cooler
air moves in behind the front for Monday.

As of 10 AM, KLWX shows a broken line of heavy showers has
developed form northern MD to around Staunton, VA. No lightning
has been detected thus far from the various networks, though the
expectation is for convection to become a bit more organized as
it moves east of the Blue Ridge. Peak gusts with convection have
been around 25-30 knots. The strongest gusts have occurred out
ahead of the main line, where south winds are gusting around 30
kt at IAD, DCA, and BWI.

Gusty winds are expected to be the primary threat with any
stronger thunderstorms that develop through he afternoon.
Though the overall severe thunderstorm potential is low, there
could be one or two stronger storms over Southern MD during the
early to mid afternoon.

Behind the main line of showers/storms, light rain will persist
for a few hours before conditions clear from west to east late
this afternoon. Conditions clear the Allegheny Front by around
noon, the Blue Ridge by around 2 PM, the I-95 corridor by
around 4 PM, and then southern Maryland by around 6 PM. Total
rainfall amounts between a quarter and a half of an inch of
rain, which should be beneficial given ongoing drought conditions.

Winds will pick up out of the northwest behind the front and
advect much cooler air into the forecast area tonight. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s and lower 40s. Mostly
sunny skies are expected tomorrow, with highs in the upper 50s
and lower 60s for most (upper 40s mountains).

KEY MESSAGE 2... Cooler temps expected this week along with surface
high pres building over the Mid-Atlantic by midweek.

Upper trough will swing across the northern Mid-Atlantic states
Sunday night through Tuesday bringing chilly air for early Apr with
highs 5 to 15 degrees cooler than normal. As strong Canadian
high pressure settles in by Wednesday morning, expect cold
temperatures with likelihood of frost and hard freeze. Since
this is earlier than the median date of April 11 of the last
Spring Freeze based on the latest 1991-2000 Climatology, no
Frost and/or Freeze headlines are anticipated at this time.

The strong high pressure center remains the dominant weather feature
through the end of the week supporting dry conditions. A warming
trend will begin during the second half of the week as the high
pressure center moves further offshore and southerly flow develops.
No precip is expected through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A line of showers and possible thunderstorms is moving across
the area through early afternoon. When the line moves over a
terminal, expect a sudden wind shift to the west, with gusts
around 30-35 knots and reduced VSBY for a short period of time.

Winds are currently gusty out of the south ahead of the line of
showers and thunderstorms. Improvement back to VFR conditions
is expected this afternoon, as northwesterly winds gust to
around 20-25 knots. VFR condtions will then persist through at
least the middle of the week.

Breezy to windy conditions expected today through Tue with gusts to
30 kt, mainly during the daylight hours. Winds begin to diminish Wed
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue within southerly flow early this
morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front
will move across the waters through this afternoon. Ahead of the
front southerly wind gusts are approaching gale force. SMWs are
likely to be needed for parts of the waters.

Winds will shift to out of the northwest behind the front this
afternoon. SCA conditions are expected to continue through the
night within northwesterly flow, and earlier SCAs have been
extended in time to account for this threat. Sub-SCA level
westerly winds are expected on Monday. SCAs appear likely within
northwesterly flow on Tuesday behind a reinforcing cold front.

Solid SCA conditions expected through Tue night with winds
diminishing below SCA by Wed afternoon.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ530>532-535-
     536-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ533-534-537-
     541>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP/KRR
AVIATION...AVS/KJP/KRR
MARINE...AVS/KJP/KRR